Well, that’s a headline to get the heart rate going, particularly in a market that is already having to come to terms with a steady decline. But forewarned is forearmed which makes the latest CGA report such an important and fascinating read. It looks to dig behind the headlines and crunch the numbers to identify what are the other drinks categories that are the real clear and present dangers to overall wine sales in the on-trade. Here are the top line findings.
Rival premium drinks categories, particularly spirits, are the ones to watch if wine suppliers and restaurant buyers are to keep hold of wine’s share in the on-trade, according to the latest CGA report.
The decline of still wine sales in the on-trade has become very much the elephant in the room when it comes to discussing the key trends that are driving the overall wine trends in restaurant and bars.Those with a nervous disposition might want to skip over the fact that in the last 12 months there has been £146m less sales of still wine in the on-trade than in the previous 12 months. Which adds up to a 4.5% decline in value sales and 7.7% in volume, according to CGA latest figures.
What’s more there are, it adds according to CGA, 2,417 less on-trade outlets overall going into 2020 to even try and sell wine to in the first place. Whilst it’s some comfort that 74% of diners say they still drink a similar amount of wine as they did previously did, a growing proportion, 19%, said they are cutting back, compared to the 9% who admit to drinking more.
It is in this context that the latest CGA on-trade report – the third in a series of four that it is producing in partnership with The Buyer – looks to tackle the issue of declining on-trade wine sales head on. It pulls back the curtain to examine what are the reasons behind the slowdown in sales, and what other drinks categories are benefiting as a result.
The report, which is available to buy either on its own or as part of a package of four (see below for details), might make for hard reading for some, but it does demonstrate quite clearly that although there are a growing number of consumers who are cutting down on drinking, or not drinking at all, the overall drinks categories are still very good business for restaurants, bars and hotels.
It might just mean they will be better placed to recruit more buyers with specialist premium spirits and world beer experience. For those are the categories that are really benefiting from the decline in wine sales. Gin sales were up a further 42% last year, flavoured gins by 200% and premium world lager up 9%.
The ‘Threats’ report looks closely at the trends within different demographic groups, particularly the role that younger and female drinkers have in dictating the overall picture. Interestingly one of the key findings is that there are actually more younger drinkers (18-34 year-olds) coming into the wine category, with 23% saying they have drunk more wine in the last year.
The report also analyses the occasions when people are drinking wine, and there is perhaps not surprisingly a big difference between eating out and drinking only occasions. With 70% of consumers saying they ‘only’ or ‘mainly’ drink wine when eating, compared to 34% on drinking only occasions.
You can buy the full report and the others in the exclusive CGA/ The Buyer series. These include.
Casual Dining – Changes in the High Street.
The first in the series started with casual dining. The headline figures from this report make both encouraging and startling reading. For on the one hand the value of wine sales in casual dining restaurants has jumped by close to 7% in the last year, with nearly half of guests choosing to drink wine when dining out, but only a quarter of those guests actually rate the win choice as very good.
Data from this report highlights just how big this sector has become for wine. The 46% of consumers who regularly choose to drink wine in casual dining outlets is not only up on 2017, but is significantly higher than all other drinks categories, including lager (31%) and cocktails (21%). The report also looks at which type of casual dining restaurant is most tuned into wine, and picks out the Italian-focused brands such as Carluccio’s, Prezzo, Jamie’s Italian, Zizzi, Bella Italia and PizzaExpress as leading the way.
Report 2: Global Origins
What regions and grape varieties within those countries are selling the most are of most interest to UK wine buyers. Whether you are looking to source wines to then distribute and push out to your restaurant, pub and bar customers, or you are a restaurant group, or sommelier, looking to buy direct. This it was the second in the CGA Wine Insight Report series is all about. The chance to take a deep dive into exactly what is selling and moving off wine lists and back bars across the country.
It shows that Old World countries continue to dominate the UK’s wine market, but consumers are increasingly open to new sources and varietals, and if they like the wines they taste then they are also willing to spend more for higher quality. Based on recent CGA on-trade data the value of GB total wine and Champagne sales remains in decline, down2.4% year-on-year, but it over indexes significantly against volume, which is down 7.4% year-on-year, which suggests spend is greater in relation to consumption. Wines from Old World countries accounted for nearly two thirds (63.4%) of volume sales in the last year, with France and Italy the two most popular countries.
Report 4: The Future of Wine.
To be published shortly, this report will look at how the wine category is likely to change over the next decade, be it through natural forces, changes in production, wine innovation, packaging, dispensing technology, product diversification and education.
- You can now buy all four reports for a discounted price of £2,000 plus VAT.
- You can still buy any of the four reports on their own for £850 plus VAT. So a saving of £900 if you buy all four.
- Reports are delivered in both PDF and Powerpoint formats.
- For more information, please contact Mark Newton at email@example.com.
- About CGA: CGA is a data and research consultancy covering the out-of-home food and drinks market, specialising in market measurement, consumer research and location planning. It is focused on analysing three key types of data – supply, demand and consumer – and then triangulates this data to provide an accurate picture of the overall out-of-home sector. Find out more at: www.cga.co.uk.